55% of Ontarians think Canada is on the right track. Six months from now, they might not.
Canadians are hopeful. Here’s what it’ll take to keep them that way.
By Polina Vasylkova | September 30, 2026
Summary: On September 29, askpolly CEO Erin Kelly joined TVO Today’s The Rundown to explain why 55% of Ontarians say Canada is on the right track, while about two-thirds of Americans think their country is headed the wrong way. Much of that optimism rests on faith in Prime Minister Carney and the social safety net, but it’s short-term. Polly’s data suggests Canada is about six months from a tipping point unless people start seeing concrete results.
Last night Erin Kelly, askpolly CEO, had the chance to speak on TVO Today’s The Rundown with Jeyan Jeganathan. Here’s what Polly hears, what Erin said, and how to turn pessimism around.
Hopeful, despite the headlines
Canadians have every reason to be gloomy: a trade war, the recent 350 Stelco layoffs in Hamilton, Ontario unemployment near 7%. Yet 55% of Ontarians say Canada is on the right track.
Polly measures how people perceive the economy, not the economy itself. She uses the same method as a phone survey: a randomized, representative sample of each population. The difference is that she listens to what people are already saying, across social bubbles, instead of calling them in the middle of dinner.
Why Canadians are hopeful
So why are Canadians hopeful? Mostly, it’s Carney. When asked how much of the optimism comes from faith in the Prime Minister, Erin didn’t hesitate: “A lot.” Canadians also trust the social safety net. When the government says it’ll protect workers if the economy takes a hit, people believe it. Americans don’t have that faith, either in their leader or in their systems.
Older Canadians are the most optimistic, and talk of foreign investment and new trade is feeding the hope. Even in Alberta, Polly’s hearing people point to new money flowing into oil and gas.
Where the optimism runs thin
But this is short-term optimism. When we dig into economic growth, there’s a lot more fear under the surface. The safety net was never meant to be how the country runs in peacetime, and without a strong economy, there’s no money to pay for it.
Trade is where the picture gets mixed. People are hopeful about investment in tech, pharma, and oil and gas. Agriculture is another story. Canada has had a free trade deal with Europe for years, but strict EU rules keep a lot of our farm products out.
The 11.5% who could change the mood
Public opinion rarely shifts little by little. It usually swings all at once, and a small group of people tends to set it off. Polly keeps an eye on the ones leading the negative side of the conversation. They’re not just repeating bad numbers. They’re the people who can explain what those numbers mean in a way their friends and followers actually find convincing.
Right now, that group makes up about 11.5% of the population. In our experience, once it grows to somewhere between 15 and 20%, the broader public tends to follow.
Our estimate: we’re about six months from that tipping point if there’s no good news and no sign that a plan is working.
How can Canadians overcome the pessimism?
Start with balance. For every Stelco, there needs to be an announcement like a new pharma plant opening and the jobs that come with it. Then get specific. Who’s investing? Which plants are opening?
Most of all, face the hard fears head-on. If Europe is a tough market for our farmers, say how we’re going to get in. People want those worries addressed, “not just that we’re signing agreements and having meetings,” said Erin. Canadians need to see real results within 12 months.
What the US tells us
The US shows what happens otherwise. The difference we see there between 2025 and 2026 is substantial. Americans point to the war in Iran, rising inflation and no visible plan. Border states are feeling the trade war too.
Canadians still believe. The job now is to prove them right, and the clock is already running.
Are you more hopeful than you were a year ago? Or is the tipping point closer than six months?
Watch Erin’s full segment (19:58–28:29) on TVO Today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wI4V-Xsxn_E